Don't Blame the (Tesla) AutoPilot !

Most of you must have seen the amply-broadcast and highlighted story about a fatal accident involving a Tesla in autopilot mode. Most commentators have been quick to blame, chastise, or at least question, Tesla's autopilot software. The government watchdog NHTSA is investigating Tesla (http://www.theverge.com/…/tesla-autopilot-car-crash-death-a…). There is every possibility of a knee-jerk reaction that will force Tesla to "recall" the software, and for Tesla drivers to lose this feature. But before we fall into that trap I would like to offer a perspective. 

1) Augment vs Replace: Tesla AutoPilot, like many other “artificial intelligence” (AI) tools, aims to augment the human, not replace him or her. This “augmentation” idea has been a cornerstone of AI work for decades. For example, I find the auto-pilot feature immensely useful - it lets my eye scan the environment around, front of, and behind me - and be alert for unforeseen things which I would have missed if I were intensely focused on keeping the car in lane. It doesn’t replace me - there are a lot of things I can anticipate, predict, and respond to a lot better - but it definitely helps me while I’m in the car. The particular scenario that occurred - big truck crossing perpendicular to your lane, in front of you - perfectly illustrates the value of augmentation. A driver with autopilot would be far more likely to notice the truck than one without.

2) Beta status and Correct use: Tesla is very clear about conditions under which autopilot should be used ("standard" freeways, no construction, and evidently no intersections for cross-traffic). I find myself pushing these boundaries, but all the time ready to take over in the blink of an eye. In this particular case, I am not sure but it appears to me this event might have occurred outside the "correct use" condition.

3. Tradeoff and probabilities: Even if points number 1 and 2 were not valid in this case (which they are), one still should be clear of what to expect from an AI tool : it may not be perfect, but if it is "better on average" (i.e., reduces probability of an accident) it is still worthwhile.

Most importantly, look at how items #1 and #3 combine. Not only does autopilot perform better on average, it generally performs well on where the human is weak (e.g., losing attention on a long boring drive; drifting across lanes; unsafe lane shifting) - and while it certainly will fail in some cases where the human would have done fine - that totally reiterates the point that in this case 1+1 = 3 or more.

At the end of the day, Autopilot software is in a sense not so different from, say, a rear-view mirror. You use it to get a sense of the objects behind you. But sometimes you turn your head and try to look behind. And you certainly don’t blame it if you back into a wall.

So, I hope you will all not be scared of, or against, autopilot technology. And please spread the word !

A Hike in Blue Ridge / Stebbins Canyon, Winters, CA

Jan 17, 2016

After several days of rains, a beautiful morning in Davis, with puffy clouds and blue skies. In other words, a perfect day for a hike. I start the 30-minute drive to the Blue Ridge Stebbins Canyon trail, adjacent to Lake Berryessa. This is the first visit in months, and after the Summer 2015 forest fire that burnt about 8,000 acres near here. Here’s a picture of my destination.



Inspired by monochrome pictures taken by a friend, I stop in Winters to click the bare almond groves in their Winter sadness. 



A few minutes and some beautiful winding roads later I’m near the trailhead. But, wait, not a single car here! That’s odd. Is the trail closed? A little sign in the parking area suggests so. 

This could be due to the recent abundant rainfall. I sense some hope - the sign seems flipped out to the side and it hasn’t really rained that hard! Sadly, my doubts are erased as I approach the trailhead. 

But I’ve waited too long and come too far to give up on this. Sorry, law, trail beckons. 



The main trail is a 5-mile loop, which ascends steeply to the top, then provides beautiful vistas of Lake Berryessa and Napa valley along the ridge, before diving into the canyon and crossing a creek towards the end. I was especially looking forward to seeing a fully-flowing creek, after years of dryness from our recent droughts. But, today, not quite sure if I should even be here, I realize I can only head to the top and turn back down. As for the creek, just a peek of it while starting the hike.




As I begin the hike, the reason for the closure dawns on me. This region was not just near the summer fire - it was right in it! The landscape has changed. Trees are shorter, and bereft of branches or leaves. The ground is black. Around me lingers the smell of fire - and surely, some death - trees, plant life and wild life?








Still, some things are not that different. Our version of El Capitan is majestic, marking the start of the ridge.

 The scenery around me is beautiful, down into the valley where I parked, and beyond towards Winters and Davis in the East. 







Some more climbling brings me to the Eastern end of the ridge top, which opens up a view of the South end of Lake Berryessa.





The trail continues along the ridge, leaking evidence of the fire and devastation.  Below it, the lake is calm and beautiful!

The muscular hills on the South side remind me of Big Sur. The East side is also a beautiful green at this time of year. 





 Overcoming a desire to carry on along the ridge and then down into the canyon, I decide to turn around after spending a few minutes to enjoy the scenery. The descent is speedy but on the way down I notice signs of new life amid the blackness and devastation.





The new life and fresh green makes for a nice end to a memorable hike. As for the trail closures, I resolve to join the volunteer group working on restoration of this area.  Hope you enjoyed reading this, and perhaps you can hike here this summer.

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The Trip to Klamath Falls, Crater Lake and Lava Beds National Monument - Part II

We left from Davis at 7 am on July 2nd, and right about 10 am we got to Penny's Diner (carefully selected to assuage the kids for the long drive) for a simple breakfast of Fluffy French Toast and vegetable hash-browns. After a half hour, the kids were well fed - and ready to return to their audio-story (Percy Jackson & The Last Olympian). The book is supposedly designed for a 12+ age-group, but Pranav (9) convinced Mallika (7) that she'd enjoy it too. So, after a few pictures we boarded the van again at 10.45, turned on Percy Jackson and set off for the rest of our morning drive to Winema Lodge. The route had already turned quite scenic even an hour ago, as we passed Shasta Lake and got into the higher elevations, with views of mountains, enormous greenery, water, and ponderosa pines. And soon after departing Dunsmuir we also began to enjoy views of the beautiful Mt Shasta.

Our next destination, Winema Lodge, was an interesting place, found through Internet search and couple of Yelp reviews. It is near the Lava Beds National Park, in an area (town ?) called Tulelake and Lower Klamath Basin and Wildlife Refuge. Wildlife as in birds, tens of millions of them at different times in the year, drawn to the shallow - but quite enormous - lake and wetlands. The area (and indeed Winema Lodge) is a destination for hunters - who are allowed to hunt certain types of waterfowl, perhaps at certain times of the year. July is probably not one of them. We did see and hear quite a few birds, especially in the evening and morning, but certainly not tens of thousands. 





The name TuleLake rang a bell for me. I'm a sleeping member of the Tuleyome organization which - among other things - tries to conserve Northern California wilderness regions, especially (closer to us) Berryessa Lake and the neighboring hiking trails and wilderness. I learnt that Tule is the name of the local grasses - long reedy grasses, actually perennial herbs which grow abundantly along the marshy areas of California. It was used by the California Indians to make shelters, boats, and sleeping/sitting mats. Oh yes, this entire region was home to various native Indian tribes including the Modocs, Wintun, Shasta, Maidu and Yana (all these are street names in Davis) - and the region has quite a few historical sites from various wars and other events. But that will be for another visit. 






Winema Lodge is run by an elderly couple, of whom we met the better half, Verna. During the  reservation process, Verna had offered to make us a pack lunch so we could quickly head off to Lava Beds. There's absolutely nothing else around, the place is total desolation. When we got there, right at noon, Verna had a big bowl of twisty pasta ready, plus a bunch of sandwiches. Having driven long enough we decided to eat a little, filled up our water bottles, and carried away the sandwiches for the afternoon.

This not being prime hunting season there were relatively few guests in the Lodge. Verna got us our room, we checked in, freshened up, and got ready for the remaining 20 minute drive to the National Park, with fervent hope (but little reason to believe) that we'd get the 2pm guided tour. The Parks office, when I had called them, had suggested getting to the Visitor's Center 2 hours ahead to reserve our spot - so the plan was to first get there, reserve our spot, then drive back 20 minutes to Winema Lodge and return close to 2pm. But as you read, we decided to stop at the Lodge first and got to the Center a little after 1pm. The drive to the Park entrance and the Visitor Center was a foretaste of the landscape ahead of us - patches of crumbly volcanic rock, moonscape, a few grasses, and lots of rocky "hills" (formally called buttes).

Fortunately we were still able to get on the tour, which turned out to be a fascinating experience. And more on that later.  

The Trip to Klamath Falls, Crater Lake and Lava Beds National Monument - Part I

Having decided on leave the next day, I planned out a 3-day itinerary. Leave July 2 about 6 am, arrive at Klamath Falls in about 4 hours, then turn and continue to Lava Beds and get there about noon. It seemed like we could spend the rest of the day there, and then come back the next day - there were about 20 lava caves to explore, a dozen hikes and other scenery. The second day we'd leave early, and head up to a place closer to Crater Lake for the night. Then get a very early start on July 4, see Crater Lake and then return that evening to Davis, in time for the 9:30 pm, July 4 fireworks. The Lava Beds park offers guided tours - at 2pm, and 10 am - and I felt it was critical we got at least one of those. The tours are quickly sold out, it wasn't possible to make reservations, so our best chance stood for the 10 am tour on the second day. Crater Lake offers a boat cruise and a trolley tour, both also need reservations that sell out very quickly. We thought we'd take our chances upon getting there.

But first there was a little persuasion to do, to get the kids on the side of the long drive and leaving their home and toys. Somehow, it happened - Deepali must have told them some story - both of them decided to come along without too much fuss. (And, Utsav wasn't here - one less person to convince :) And, as we'll see, good for him he wasn't on this particular trip.) There was also a work-related difficulty. I needed to do a tele-con-meeting with some researchers at Facebook in New York. plus I had some meetings at work. Canceled the work meetings, and moved the Facebook call to 6 am. We started the drive at 7 am.

Anticipating about 5 hours of driving I had identified couple of breakfast choices, and gave the kids some descriptions - Black Bear Diner - which they like, and a second place - Penny's Diner - for which the reviews talked about their "fluffy French Toast" which got Pranav excited.

Penny's Diner is one of these "hole in the wall" type places - actually it looks from outside like a mobile train coach. Open 24 hours! In a town called Dunsmuir, population 2000. Dunsmuir is in Northern California, about 3 hours drive from Davis. The mountains begin at about 2 hours away (at which point we get to Redding - already 1,000-2,000 ft elevation), which makes the drive is quite enjoyable. The highway at Dunsmuir is at 4,000 ft and the mountains higher of course. So, this Diner is a small shack nestled along the highway and basically surrounded by mountains. There is nothing else - except that one building you can see on the right - a small motel - and I don't know where the remaining 1,997 people live. But as I just discovered there is definitely more to do - a nice town area (http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/genInfo.php?locIndex=10095) and the beautiful

Mossbrae Falls

Mossbrae waterfalls (http://nice-cool-pics.com/img-mossbrae-falls,-dunsmuir,-california-4194.htm). Another day. 

So, we made our stop at Penny's Diner. Inside is a row of a few seating booths on one side, and the other side is their kitchen equipment etc. You can sit and watch them making the food - basically omelettes, toast, and just a few other things. And they even had a bathroom!

We ordered the kids some french toast, and for us some "hashed browns" (potato thins + vegetables) and coffee. Pranav, thankfully, liked his french toast! Downed pretty quickly, back to his book. Mallika didn't care for hers so much - but she was willing to eat toast. And the hashed browns were actually quite good - particularly the vegetables, and topped with with some spicy jalapeno peppers. A good 45-minute stop, and we were back on our way at 10.45. Our next destination was Winema Lodge, which is another place I had found on the Internet. It is about 20 minutes away from Lava Beds National Park, and was to be our place for rest at night. The plan was to make a quick stop, get our room and dump some of our bags, get some lunch, and then try to get on that 2pm guided tour.

More on this later and the next time.

Klamath Falls - Visiting Crater Lake and Lava Beds National Monument - The Plan

This was a trip we made at the start of July 2014. The planning process from the trip benefited a lot from Internet search, reviews and travelogues by others who had been there. So I feel obliged to reciprocate and share our marvelous experience and pictures. So, here goes.

The idea for this trip originated from the desire to take an Amtrak train journey (Coastal Starlight) out of Davis - travel by train and escape the summer heat. I had in mind a place called Klamath Falls - which is a town in Southern Oregon, close to the border with California. Our kids hate driving - especially the two younger ones, with Utsav gone off to Interlochen Arts camp in Michigan for the summer. For Pranav and Mallika, even a 10-15 minute drive is too much, and longer trips - which naturally require the van, because the electric car can only go so far - are complete Uugghhs. So, the train journey idea had been there for quite some time. And Klamath Falls is a convenient train journey because the train leaves Davis at 11 pm, and gets to Klamath Falls about 6 am the next morning. 

Klamath Falls - the name alone makes it sound like an interesting place to visit with natural beauty - falls. After a lot of research I could not find any "falls" among the things to do and see in that area! But Klamath Falls also happens to be a launch pad for Crater Lake - which is a well-known and major destination. I have seen it from the plane, on the ride from Sacramento to Seattle. It is a very prominent landmark because it is a large circular lake, sitting on top of a 10,000 ft mountain. Created when the (originally 12-13,000 ft) mountain blew its top during a volcanic eruption, but with the sides (the rim) completely preserved all around. Over time the middle - the crater - filled up with snow-melt and water. There are no inflows into the lake and no outflows, and the water is considered the most pristine and blue in the world. Klamath Falls is also close to other sights and scenery, with abundant lakes and mountains all around. The other main destination I identified was Lava Beds National Monument - which is a National Park in Northern California (see http://www.nps.gov/labe/index.htm), and 1-hour Southeast of Klamath Falls, whereas Crater Lake is (also a National Park, http://www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm) in Southern Oregon and 1-hour North of Klamath Falls. Apart from these two, there are two huge lakes, Upper Klamath and Lower Klamath. 

As I began planning the trip, other logistical challenges came up. Spending the night in the train - sitting - is not great, and also somewhat tiring. Sleepers are possible - but a) extremely expensive, b) mostly sold out (I was looking only 2-3 days ahead), and c) the only thing we could get would be two separate 2-berth sleeper rooms. Then, getting there at 6 am and leaving (after 1 or 2 days) by the return 10 pm train - presents a challenge for hotel stay. Because most hotels have a 3pm check-in and 11 am checkout. Finally,  once we got to Klamath Falls we'd need a car anyway - which would mean hauling our bags and gear from home to car to platform to train to platform to car ... you get the picture.  Traveling by car (van) instead would avoid all these issues. We could dump all the things we wanted to take - and possibly needed - into the van. In fact, we could even take 2-3 bicycles in the back of the van. It would also free us on when to make the trip - a spur of the moment trip was possible, and we could start in the morning rather than night. The drive to Klamath is just about 4 hours (not 8 as for train).

So, van it would be. On July 1 we decided we'd leave by van the next morning. More about this in the next post.